The influence of weather on human mortality in Hong Kong
Introduction
The awareness of the relationship between climate and human health has long been existed since Hippocrates. This association has been examined by researchers from various disciplines (Mather, 1974, Oliver, 1981). There are growing interests in the investigation of seasonal variations of mortality and weather–mortality relationship by the medical and climatological disciplines.
It is known that mortality is generally higher in winter (Tromp, 1963, Hodge, 1978, Bako et al., 1988, Douglas et al., 1991a, Douglas et al., 1991b, Lerchl, 1998, McKee et al., 1998). Kalkstein and Davis (1989) found that warm, humid and calm conditions were related to elevated summer mortality whereas cloudy, damp and snowy conditions were associated with the greatest mortality in winter. Shumway et al. (1988) showed that temperature, but not relative humidity, contributed significantly to mortality. Alberdi et al. (1998) discovered a J-shaped relationship between temperature, relative humidity and mortality in Madrid; and mortality was found to be negatively associated with high humidity in summer.
The impact of stressful weather on mortality is well documented (e.g. Marmor, 1975, Bridger et al., 1976, Ellis and Nelson, 1978, Applegate et al., 1981, Ramlow and Kuller, 1990, Knobeloch et al., 1997; Whitman et al., 1997; Smoyer, 1998). Gover (1938) stated that excessive mortality during a second heat wave would be slight in comparison to excessive mortality during the first. Buechley et al. (1972) discovered that maximum temperature over 35°C (95°F) was associated with excess mortality. Ellis (1972) suggested that excessive heat might be more lethal than elevated air pollution. Saez et al. (1995) claimed that mortality would increase following at least three consecutive days of increased temperatures.
Research has also been conducted on the impact of extreme winter weather on mortality (e.g. Gerald and Rose, 1979, Kunst et al., 1993, Christophersen, 1997, Donaldson and Keatinge, 1997). It has been documented that the effect of low temperature was more apparent in population in warm regions and more deaths followed uncommon cold weather (Larson, 1990, Makino, 1993).
Little research on climate and mortality has been done in the tropics. Madrigal (1994) reported maximum mortality during the rainy season in Costa Rica Motohashi et al. (1996) investigated the relationship between rainfall and seasonal mortality in Sri Lanka. Auliciems et al. (1997) detected an increase in mortality with cold, dry weather in Brisbane, Australia. Kalkstein and Smoyer (1993) found that the greatest mortality in Guangzhou was significantly associated with hot afternoon temperatures and very warm night temperatures. Pan et al. (1995) studied cardiovascular disease mortality in Taiwan and concluded that there was a U-shaped relation between temperature and mortality from coronary artery disease and cerebral infarction. Research by Woo et al. (1991) revealed that temperature was not strongly associated with stroke occurrence in Hong Kong.
Knowledge about the interaction between weather and mortality can provide better understanding about the vulnerability of specific population groups. The present study provides an overview of weather–mortality association in Hong Kong. The objectives of this research are to test the hypothesis that there was seasonality of mortality for the period from 1980 through 1994 and to assess weather–mortality relationships for genders and various age groups.
Section snippets
Data
Monthly mortality from various diseases in this study period were obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The data were further divided into gender and age groups 0–16, 17–24, 25–44, 45–64 and ≥65. Current knowledge suggests that there are associations between various weather variables and mortality. Weather variables including temperature, dewpoint, pressure, cloud, windspeed and precipitation were selected for this analysis and monthly meteorological data for the study period were
Mortality seasonality
Results of the regression analyses using dummy variables (Table 4) revealed a positive relationship between mortality and the winter months, i.e. higher deaths occurred in winter. Statistically significant reliable winter peaks in gender specific and total deaths from all causes, circulatory and respiratory diseases were noted. However, cancer mortality was not seasonal. There was no gender difference in mortality seasonality. Excepting neoplasms, results from ANOVA (Table 5) exhibited
Discussion
The findings that mortality seasonality existed for gender specific and total deaths are consistent with previous studies (Bako et al., 1988, Douglas et al., 1991a, Douglas et al., 1991b). Although Allan (1966) found that the highest mortality from cancer in Britain was not in the coldest months, but in the fourth quarter of the year, the result of this study indicated no seasonality for malignant disease. This finding confirms the absence of a winter peak.
The non-existence of significant
Conclusions
It is apparent that weather has a substantial effect on mortality. The impact can differ seasonally. Also certain age groups seem to be more susceptible to the influence of weather. Results of this study confirm some previous findings, but also contradict other findings in weather–mortality research. More attention has recently been placed on the impact of air pollution on mortality and many studies suggest that pollution has a significant effect on health (Stern, 1977). More promising results
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