Table 3

Model of attending physician new patients per hour and covariates at site 2

 Effect Estimated new patients per hour 95% CI P value Hour 1 (intercept) 2.95 2.47 to 3.43 <0.01 Hour 2 −1.35 −1.71 to −0.99 <0.01 Hour 3 −1.62 −2.04 to −1.20 <0.01 Hour 4 −1.91 −2.37 to −1.44 <0.01 Hour 5 −2.07 −2.54 to −1.61 <0.01 Hour 6 −1.93 −2.40 to −1.49 <0.01 Hour 7 −2.12 −2.54 to −1.72 <0.01 Hour 8 −2.69 −3.03 to −2.34 <0.01 Arrivals 0.37 0.31 to 0.43 <0.01 Arrivals * hour 2 −0.01 −0.06 to 0.03 <0.01 Arrivals * hour 3 0.00 −0.01 to 0.09 <0.01 Arrivals * hour 4 0.01 −0.04 to 0.06 <0.01 Arrivals * hour 5 0.02 −0.05 to 0.09 <0.01 Arrivals * hour 6 −0.11 −0.19 to −0.04 <0.01 Arrivals * hour 7 −0.14 −0.22 to −0.07 <0.01 Arrivals * hour 8 −0.23 −0.29 to −0.17 <0.01 Each additional doctor working −0.27 −0.34 to −0.21 <0.01 Acuity (median ESI) 0.12 0.05 to 0.20 <0.01
• Asterisk (*) denotes interaction terms.

• Estimate of new patients per hour=(2.95+hourly adjustment)+(arrivals×(0.37+hourly adjustment))+(doctors working×−0.27)+(median acuity×0.25).

• In the first hour of the shift, a physician working alone with five new patient arrivals and a median ESI score of 3 would see an estimate of: 2.95+(5×0.37)+(0×−0.27)+(3×0.25)=5.55 patients.

• In the fourth hour of the shift, a physician working alone with five new patient arrivals and a median ESI score of 3 would see an estimate of: (2.95+−1.91)+(5×(0.37+0.01))+(0×−0.27)+(3×0.25)=3.69 patients.

• ESI, Emergency Severity Index.