Intended for healthcare professionals

  1. Calculating risks
  2. Calculating risks
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Calculating risks

BMJ 2002; 325 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.325.7363.552/a (Published 07 September 2002) Cite this as: BMJ 2002;325:552
  1. Mirza Muminovic, Clegg scholar (mmuminovic{at}bmjgroup.com)
  1. BMJ

    Risk factors are behaviours, conditions, inherited traits, or lifestyle choices that increase a person's chances of developing a disease, or of that disease deteriorating. Several of these factors can be modified, treated, or controlled; some cannot. One of this week's letters (p 548) tackles communicating risk. With the expansion of the worldwide web, there are now interactive online tools that people like to try to calculate their risks.

    The American Heart Association (http://www.americanheart.org/) presents Heart Profilers, subtitled “Your Treatment Decision Tools.” Heart Profilers provides patients and their physicians with medical information and risks on atrial fibrillation, cholesterol, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and high blood pressure. It takes only about 20 minutes to sign in, create an extensive personalised profile, and generate a report. Based on the responses given on the guided questionnaire, risk factors for selected conditions are organised into broad categories. Using the most current and significant published scientific studies, the tool guides patients to make educated decisions about treatments for chronic disease.

    Another series of profilers, this time about different types of cancer, can be found at http://www.cancerfacts.com/. These profilers employ the same user interface as they are, like Heart Profilers, developed by the same company, NexCura.

    People who have two or more risk factors for heart disease might find a useful tool at the site of the US National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (www.nhlbisupport.com/chd1/tx2.asp). This calculates a “risk score”—that is, the chance of having a heart attack in the next 10 years, given as a percentage. Even if the percentage represents bad news, there are recommendations, tips, and quizzes aimed at reducing the risk.

    Another online tool at the same site (www.nhlbisupport.com/bmi/bmicalc.htm) can calculate your body mass index, put you in one of four categories, and assess the health risks associated with overweight and obesity. This BMI calculator can be downloaded from http://hin.nhlbi.nih.gov/bmi_palm.htm for use on Palm OS handheld devices. If you need to diminish your BMI results, Menu Planner at http://hin.nhlbi.nih.gov/menuplanner/menu.cgi can calculate calories for your meals.

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