Background People presenting to the ED with acute severe headache often undergo investigation to exclude subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). International guidelines propose that brain imaging within 6 hours of headache onset can exclude SAH, in isolation. The safety of this approach is debated. We sought to externally validate this strategy and evaluate the test characteristics of CT-brain beyond 6 hours.

Methods A prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study of consecutive adult patients with non-traumatic acute headache presenting to the ED within a UK National Health Service setting. Investigation, diagnosis and management of SAH were all performed within routine practice. All participants were followed up for 28 days using medical records and direct contact as necessary. Uncertain diagnoses were independently adjudicated.

Results Between March 2020 and February 2023, 3663 eligible patients were enrolled from 88 EDs (mean age 45.8 (SD 16.6), 64.1% female). 3268 patients (89.2%) underwent CT-brain imaging. There were 237 cases of confirmed SAH, a prevalence of 6.5%. CT within 6 hours of headache onset (n=772) had a sensitivity of 97% (95% CI 92.5% to 99.2%) for the diagnosis of SAH and a negative predictive value of 99.6% (95% CI 98.9% to 99.9%). The post-test probability after a negative CT within 6 hours was 0.5% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.3%). The negative likelihood ratio was 0.03 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.08). CT within 24 hours of headache onset (n=2008) had a sensitivity of 94.6% (95% CI 91.0% to 97.0%). Post-test probability for SAH was consistently less than 1%. For aneurysmal SAH, post-test probability was 0.1% (95% CI 0.0% to 0.4%) if the CT was performed within 24 hours of headache onset.

Conclusion Our data suggest a very low likelihood of SAH after a negative CT-brain scan performed early after headache onset. These results can inform shared decision-making on the risks and benefits of further investigation to exclude SAH in ED patients with acute headache.