@article {Dinh263, author = {Michael M Dinh and Kendall J Bein and Chris M Byrne and Belinda Gabbe and Rebecca Ivers}, title = {Deriving a prediction rule for short stay admission in trauma patients admitted at a major trauma centre in Australia}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {263--267}, year = {2014}, doi = {10.1136/emermed-2012-202222}, publisher = {British Association for Accident and Emergency Medicine}, abstract = {Introduction The aim of this study was to derive and internally validate a prediction rule for short stay admissions (SSAs) in trauma patients admitted to a major trauma centre. Methods A retrospective study of all trauma activation patients requiring inpatient admission at a single inner city major trauma centre in Australia between 2007 and 2011 was conducted. Logistic regression was used to derive a multivariable model for the outcome of SSA (length of stay <=2 days excluding deaths or intensive care unit admission). Model discrimination was tested using area under receiver operator characteristic curve analyses and calibration was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic. Validation was performed by splitting the dataset into derivation and validation datasets and further tested using bootstrap cross validation. Results A total of 2593 patients were studied and 30\% were classified as SSAs. Important independent predictors of SSA were injury severity score <=8 (OR 7.8; 95\% CI 5.0 to 11.9), Glasgow coma score 14{\textendash}15 (OR 3.2; 95\% CI 1.8 to 5.4), no need for operative intervention (OR 2.2; 95\% CI 1.6 to 3.2) and age \< 65 years. (OR 1.7; 95\% CI 1.2 to 2.6). The overall model had an area under receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.84 (95\% CI 0.82 to 0.87) for the derivation dataset. After bootstrap cross validation the area under the curve of the final model was 0.83 (95\% CI 0.81 to 0.84). Conclusions We report a prediction rule that could be used to establish admission criteria for a trauma short stay unit. Further studies are required to prospectively validate the prediction rule.}, issn = {1472-0205}, URL = {https://emj.bmj.com/content/31/4/263}, eprint = {https://emj.bmj.com/content/31/4/263.full.pdf}, journal = {Emergency Medicine Journal} }