Model of attending physician new patients per hour and covariates at site 1
| Effect | Estimated new patients per hour | 95% CI | P value |
| Hour 1 (intercept) | 2.97 | 2.53 to 3.41 | <0.01 |
| Hour 2 | −1.00 | −1.47 to −0.53 | <0.01 |
| Hour 3 | −1.40 | −1.87 to −0.92 | <0.01 |
| Hour 4 | −1.61 | −2.09 to −1.13 | <0.01 |
| Hour 5 | −1.67 | −2.20 to −1.14 | <0.01 |
| Hour 6 | −1.69 | −2.20 to −1.16 | <0.01 |
| Hour 7 | −2.00 | −2.42 to −1.58 | <0.01 |
| Hour 8 | −2.56 | −2.93 to −2.19 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals | 0.12 | 0.07 to 0.17 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 2 | −0.04 | −0.11 to 0.03 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 3 | −0.02 | −0.09 to 0.05 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 4 | −0.01 | −0.06 to 0.07 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 5 | −0.01 | −0.07 to 0.09 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 6 | −0.01 | −0.09 to 0.06 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 7 | −0.01 | −0.07 to 0.06 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 8 | −0.08 | −0.13 to −0.03 | <0.01 |
| Each additional doctor working | −0.37 | −0.42 to −0.32 | <0.01 |
| Acuity (median ESI) | 0.25 | 0.19 to 0.32 | <0.01 |
Asterisk (*) denotes interaction terms.
Estimate of new patients per hour=(2.97+hourly adjustment)+(arrivals×(0.12+hourly adjustment))+(doctors working×−0.37)+(median acuity×0.25).
In the first hour of the shift, a physician working alone with five new patient arrivals and a median ESI score of 3 would see an estimate of: 2.97+(5×0.12)+(0×−0.37)+(3×0.25)=4.32 patients.
In the fourth hour of the shift, a physician working alone with five new patient arrivals and a median ESI score of 3 would see an estimate of: (2.97+−1.61)+(5×(0.12+−0.01))+(0×−0.37)+(3×0.25)=2.66 patients.
ESI, Emergency Severity Index.