Model of attending physician new patients per hour and covariates at site 3
| Effect | Estimated new patients per hour | 95% CI | P value |
| Hour 1 (intercept) | 2.17 | 2.00 to 2.33 | <0.01 |
| Hour 2 | −0.79 | −1.00 to −0.57 | <0.01 |
| Hour 3 | −1.05 | −1.22 to −0.88 | <0.01 |
| Hour 4 | −0.94 | −1.11 to −0.78 | <0.01 |
| Hour 5 | −1.01 | −1.16 to −0.86 | <0.01 |
| Hour 6 | −1.06 | −1.21 to −0.91 | <0.01 |
| Hour 7 | −1.21 | −1.31 to −1.10 | <0.01 |
| Hour 8 | −1.43 | −1.56 to −1.31 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals | 0.42 | 0.35 to 0.48 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 2 | −0.08 | −0.16 to 0.01 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 3 | −0.06 | −0.12 to 0.00 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 4 | −0.10 | −0.17 to −0.04 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 5 | −0.09 | −0.14 to −0.03 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 6 | −0.09 | −0.16 to −0.02 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 7 | −0.08 | −0.13 to −0.03 | <0.01 |
| Arrivals * hour 8 | −0.09 | −0.16 to −0.03 | <0.01 |
| Each additional doctor working | −0.43 | −0.50 to −0.36 | <0.01 |
| Acuity (median ESI) | 0.06 | 0.04 to 0.08 | <0.01 |
Asterisk (*) denotes interaction terms.
Estimate of new patients per hour=(2.17+hourly adjustment)+(arrivals×(0.42+hourly adjustment)+(doctors working×−0.43)+(median acuity×0.06).
In the first hour of the shift, a physician working alone with five new patient arrivals and a median ESI score of 3 would see an estimate of:
2.17+(5×0.42)+(0×−0.43)+(3×0.06)=4.45 patients.
In the fourth hour of the shift, a physician working alone with five new patient arrivals and a median ESI score of 3 would see an estimate of: (2.17+−0.94)+(5×(0.42+−0.10))+(0×−0.43)+(3×0.06)=3.01 patients.
ESI, Emergency Severity Index.