Number of patients referred to hospital in three simulation models—1000 runs of each model assuming a different staffing structure (standard mix of GPs/ENPs, ENPs only, highest referrers removed from service)
| Model version | Scenario for referral percentages | Min | Lower 95% | Mean | Upper 95% | Max |
| i | current staffing model | 119 | 135 | 165* | 197 | 233 |
| ii | ENP only (no GPs) | 97 | 117 | 144 | 173 | 206 |
| iii | Truncated—highest referral rates removed | 88 | 102 | 129 | 156 | 184 |
*The mean number of patients referred per week from the average of the simulations is higher than the arithmetic mean of referrals from all the empirical data (154), due to model assumptions of full shift working.
ENP, emergency nurse practitioner; GPs, general practitioners.