Table 4

Number of patients referred to hospital in three simulation models—1000 runs of each model assuming a different staffing structure (standard mix of GPs/ENPs, ENPs only, highest referrers removed from service)

Model versionScenario for referral percentagesMinLower 95%MeanUpper 95%Max
icurrent staffing model119135165*197233
iiENP only (no GPs)97117144173206
iiiTruncated—highest referral rates removed88102129156184
  • *The mean number of patients referred per week from the average of the simulations is higher than the arithmetic mean of referrals from all the empirical data (154), due to model assumptions of full shift working.

  • ENP, emergency nurse practitioner; GPs, general practitioners.