Table 5

Performance of admission prediction models in the older population

StudyModel nameAdmission, N (%)Derivation AUC (95% CI)Validation methodValidation AUCCalibration methodCalibration
Brouns et al 26 MTS4223 (59.4)External0.74 (0.73–0.75)
Di Bari et al 20 ISAR558 (34)External0.65 (0.62–0.68)
Di Bari et al 20 SC558 (34)External0.63 (0.60–0.65)
Grossmann et al 27 ESI250 (48.8)External0.741 (0.734–0.747)
Lucke et al 25 Own model older patients1817 (43.8)0.81 (0.79 to 0.82)External0.77 (0.75–0.79)Calibration plot, GOF testp>0.05
Salvi et al 21 ISAR626 (30)External0.68 (0,66–0.70)
Salvi et al 21 TRST626 (30)External0.66 (0.64–0.69)
  • Empty cells mean that specific characteristics were not tested.

  • AUC, area under the curve; ESI, emergency severity index; GOF, goodness of fit; ISAR, identification of seniors at risk; MTS, Manchester triage system; SC, silver code; TRST, triage risk screening tool.