Study results: predicting ICU admission,20 composite of ICU admission and mortality,21 ICU admission or mortality,26 composite of ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death24
| Score | Author, year, reference | Outcome (including composite outcomes) | Sensitivity % (95% CI) | Specificity % (95% CI) | Positive predictive value % (95% CI) | Negative predictive value % (95% CI) | Positive likelihood ratio (95% CI) | Negative likelihood ratio (95% CI) |
| qSOFA ≥2 | Goulden et al, 201820 | ICU admission | 36.0 (23 to 50) | 77.0 (75 to 79) | 5.0 (3 to 7) | 98 (97 to 98) | 1.57 (1.09 to 2.28) | 0.83 (0.68 to 1.02) |
| Churpek*et al, 201721 | ICU admission and mortality | 52.59 (51.2 to 54) | 67.15 (66.4 to 67.9) | 36.3† (35.2 to 37.5) | 79.9† (79.1 to 80.6) | 1.60 (1.55 to 1.66) | 0.71 (0.68 to 0.73) | |
| Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 | ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death | 39.6 (25.7 to 53.4) | 95.2 (91.9 to 98.4) | 71.0† (52.3 to 84.6) | 84.1† (78.2 to 88.7) | 8.25 (3.85 to 17.7) | 0.63 (0.51 to 0.80) | |
| Redfern§ et al, 201826 | ICU admission or mortality | 11.92 (11.2 to 12.66) | 99.39 (99.32 to 99.47) | 67.6† (64 to 71) | 91.3† (91 to 92) | 19.83 (16.73 to 22.83) | 0.89 (0.88 to 0.90) | |
| qSOFA ≥1 | Goulden et al, 201820 | ICU admission | 75.0 (61.9 to 84.7) | 39.0 (36.8 to 41.3) | 3.6† (2.6 to 4.8) | 98.1† (96.8 to 98.9) | 1.23 (1.05 to 1.44) | 0.64 (0.40 to 1.03) |
| Churpek* et al, 201721 | ICU admission and mortality | 94.52 (94 to 95.1) | 11.01 (10.5 to 11.5) | 27.5† (26.8 to 28.1) | 84.9† (83.2 to 86.5) | 1.06 (1.05 to 1.07) | 0.5 (0.44 to 0.57) | |
| Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 | ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death | 64.6 (51.1 to 78.1) | 65.1 (57.8 to 72.3) | 35.5† (26.3 to 45.8) | 86.1† (78.9 to 91.1) | 1.85 (1.38 to 2.48) | 0.54 (0.37 to 0.81) | |
| Redfern§ et al, 201826 | ICU admission or mortality | 44.53 (43.21 to 45.75) | 85.85 (85.55 to 86.15) | 25.2† (24.20 to 26.20) | 93.5† (93.3 to 93.8) | 3.13 (3.02 to 3.29) | 0.65 (0.63 to 0.67) | |
| NEWS ≥5 | Goulden et al, 201820 | ICU admission | 77.0 (64 to 88) | 41.0 (39 to 44) | 4.0 (3 to 5) | 99.0 (97 to 99) | 1.32 (1.13 to 1.53) | 0.55 (0.33 to 0.90) |
| Churpek* et al, 201721 | ICU admission and mortality | 90.64 (89.9 to 91.4) | 24.70 (24 to 25.4) | 30.03† (29.3 to 30.8) | 88.1† (87 to 89.1) | 1.20 (1.19 to 1.22) | 0.38 (0.35 to 0.42) | |
| Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 | ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death | 87.5 (78.1 to 96.6) | 41.6 (34.1 to 49.1) | 30.8† (23.7 to 38.9) | 91.8† (83.4 to 96.2) | 1.50 (1.27 to 1.77) | 0.3 (0.14 to 0.64) | |
| Redfern§ et al, 201826 | ICU admission or mortality | 45.99 (44.92 to 47.13) | 91.17 (90.94 to 91.41) | 35.8† (34.4 to 37.1) | 94.0† (93.8 to 94.3) | 5.23 (4.97 to 5.46) | 0.59 (0.58 to 0.61) | |
| MEWS ≥5 | Churpek* et al, 201721 | ICU admission and mortality | 60.57 (59.2 to 61.9) | 68.40 (67.6 to 69.2) | 40.6† (39.5 to 41.7) | 83.0† (82.2 to 83.6) | 1.92 (1.85 to 1.98) | 0.58 (0.56 to 0.60) |
| Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 | ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death | 52.1 (38.0 to 66.2) | 64.5 (57.2 to 71.7) | 30.4† (21.6 to 40.9) | 81.9† (74.4 to 87.6) | 1.47 (1.05 to 2.06) | 0.74 (0.54 to 1.02) |
*Data from supplemental data sent by authors of this study (ED data only).
†Calculated values.
‡Data from supplemental data sent by authors of this study. qSOFA here was the worst recorded not the initial qSOFA.
§Data from supplemental data sent by authors of this study (ED data only, and only included those coded as a sepsis code).
ED, emergency department; ICU, intensive care unit; MEWS, Modified Early Warning Score; NEWS, National Early Warning Score; qSOFA, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.