Table 3

Study results: predicting ICU admission,20 composite of ICU admission and mortality,21 ICU admission or mortality,26 composite of ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death24

ScoreAuthor, year, referenceOutcome (including composite outcomes)Sensitivity % (95% CI)Specificity %
(95% CI)
Positive predictive value % (95% CI)Negative predictive value % (95% CI)Positive likelihood ratio
(95% CI)
Negative likelihood ratio
(95% CI)
qSOFA ≥2Goulden et al, 201820 ICU admission36.0
(23 to 50)
77.0
(75 to 79)
5.0
(3 to 7)
98
(97 to 98)
1.57
(1.09 to 2.28)
0.83
(0.68 to 1.02)
Churpek*et al, 201721 ICU admission and mortality52.59
(51.2 to 54)
67.15
(66.4 to 67.9)
36.3†
(35.2 to 37.5)
79.9†
(79.1 to 80.6)
1.60
(1.55 to 1.66)
0.71
(0.68 to 0.73)
Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death39.6
(25.7 to 53.4)
95.2
(91.9 to 98.4)
71.0†
(52.3 to 84.6)
84.1†
(78.2 to 88.7)
8.25
(3.85 to 17.7)
0.63
(0.51 to 0.80)
Redfern§ et al, 201826 ICU admission or mortality11.92
(11.2 to 12.66)
99.39
(99.32 to 99.47)
67.6†
(64 to 71)
91.3†
(91 to 92)
19.83
(16.73 to 22.83)
0.89
(0.88 to 0.90)
qSOFA ≥1Goulden et al, 201820 ICU admission75.0
(61.9 to 84.7)
39.0
(36.8 to 41.3)
3.6†
(2.6 to 4.8)
98.1†
(96.8 to 98.9)
1.23
(1.05 to 1.44)
0.64
(0.40 to 1.03)
Churpek* et al, 201721 ICU admission and mortality94.52
(94 to 95.1)
11.01
(10.5 to 11.5)
27.5†
(26.8 to 28.1)
84.9†
(83.2 to 86.5)
1.06
(1.05 to 1.07)
0.5
(0.44 to 0.57)
Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death64.6
(51.1 to 78.1)
65.1
(57.8 to 72.3)
35.5†
(26.3 to 45.8)
86.1†
(78.9 to 91.1)
1.85
(1.38 to 2.48)
0.54
(0.37 to 0.81)
Redfern§ et al, 201826 ICU admission or mortality44.53
(43.21 to 45.75)
85.85
(85.55 to 86.15)
25.2†
(24.20 to 26.20)
93.5†
(93.3 to 93.8)
3.13
(3.02 to 3.29)
0.65
(0.63 to 0.67)
NEWS ≥5Goulden et al, 201820 ICU admission77.0
(64 to 88)
41.0
(39 to 44)
4.0
(3 to 5)
99.0
(97 to 99)
1.32
(1.13 to 1.53)
0.55
(0.33 to 0.90)
Churpek* et al, 201721 ICU admission and mortality90.64
(89.9 to 91.4)
24.70
(24 to 25.4)
30.03†
(29.3 to 30.8)
88.1†
(87 to 89.1)
1.20
(1.19 to 1.22)
0.38
(0.35 to 0.42)
Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death87.5
(78.1 to 96.6)
41.6
(34.1 to 49.1)
30.8†
(23.7 to 38.9)
91.8†
(83.4 to 96.2)
1.50
(1.27 to 1.77)
0.3
(0.14 to 0.64)
Redfern§ et al, 201826 ICU admission or mortality45.99
(44.92 to 47.13)
91.17
(90.94 to 91.41)
35.8†
(34.4 to 37.1)
94.0†
(93.8 to 94.3)
5.23
(4.97 to 5.46)
0.59
(0.58 to 0.61)
MEWS ≥5Churpek* et al, 201721 ICU admission and mortality60.57
(59.2 to 61.9)
68.40
(67.6 to 69.2)
40.6†
(39.5 to 41.7)
83.0†
(82.2 to 83.6)
1.92
(1.85 to 1.98)
0.58
(0.56 to 0.60)
Samsudin‡ et al, 201824 ICU admission, intubation and in-hospital death52.1
(38.0 to 66.2)
64.5
(57.2 to 71.7)
30.4†
(21.6 to 40.9)
81.9†
(74.4 to 87.6)
1.47
(1.05 to 2.06)
0.74
(0.54 to 1.02)
  • *Data from supplemental data sent by authors of this study (ED data only).

  • †Calculated values.

  • ‡Data from supplemental data sent by authors of this study. qSOFA here was the worst recorded not the initial qSOFA.

  • §Data from supplemental data sent by authors of this study (ED data only, and only included those coded as a sepsis code).

  • ED, emergency department; ICU, intensive care unit; MEWS, Modified Early Warning Score; NEWS, National Early Warning Score; qSOFA, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.