The epidemiology of herpes zoster and potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination in England and Wales
Introduction
Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is associated with two distinct diseases: varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles). Primary infection with VZV results in varicella, a usually mild infection of children. Following primary infection the virus becomes dormant in dorsal root ganglia, and may reactivate later to cause herpes zoster, a cutaneous eruption commonly associated with pain. Reactivation is thought to follow a decline in cell-mediated immunity, usually occurring in immunocompromised individuals or the elderly. Complications of zoster occur in 13–26% of cases [1], [2], [3], the most common and debilitating being post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) — persistent pain occurring after the onset of zoster. Around 25% of individuals would be expected to develop herpes zoster at some point in their lives [4], and between 15 and 40% of these will develop PHN [5], [6]. Hence, zoster and PHN are the cause of significant morbidity. Since the probability of developing zoster and PHN both increase significantly with age [5], [6], the overwhelming burden associated with these diseases is borne by the elderly.
A live attenuated VZV vaccine (Oka strain) has been available since the mid 1970s [7], and has been introduced into a number of country's infant immunisation schedules, including that of the United States, with the primary aim of preventing varicella [8]. There is increasing interest as to whether a similar vaccine (either live-attenuated or inactivated) might prevent the development of zoster through boosting cell-mediated immunity to VZV [9], [10], [11], [12]. Follow-up of vaccinated immuno-compromised children suggests that those who had a household exposure to wild varicella were significantly less likely to develop zoster than those who did not [13], suggesting that exposure to the vaccine might provide a similar boost. Safety and immunogenicity studies have shown that adults with a prior history of varicella can be safely immunised with either a live or attenuated varicella vaccine, resulting in a boost to their cell-mediated response [9], [10], [11], [12]. The efficacy of the live vaccine in preventing zoster in the elderly is currently being evaluated in clinical trials.
To enable the impact of mass vaccination to be assessed (whether this be vaccination of children against varicella, or vaccination of adults against herpes zoster) it is necessary to have good, population-based pre-vaccination epidemiological data. Many of the population-based studies of shingles were performed decades ago [2], [5], [6], [14] and the epidemiology of herpes zoster might be expected to have changed over time, particularly in the light of new treatment regimes and an aging population. Hence it is timely to assess the occurrence and characteristics of herpes zoster in the community.
The aims of this paper are to quantify the epidemiology of zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia in a typical industrialised country (England and Wales), to determine if mass adult vaccination against zoster is likely to be cost-effective, and if so, which age group should be targeted for immunisation.
Section snippets
Epidemiological data sources and parameter estimates
The age-specific incidence of zoster in the community was taken from a prospective study of zoster in general practice over the period 1947–1972 [5] and from two sentinel surveillance systems: the fourth morbidity survey in general practice (MSGP4), a survey of general practices covering a 1% sample of England and Wales during 1991–1992 [15]; and the Royal College of general practitioners weekly returns service (RCGP) [16] which also comprises of a representative sample of GP practices in
Epidemiology of zoster
The annual incidence of first episode of herpes zoster in England and Wales by age group as calculated from the different data sets is shown in Fig. 1. It is clear that the incidence of first episode of zoster increases with age from 10 to 20 per 10 000 person years in children to greater than 100 per 10 000 person years in those aged 85 years or greater. There is a high degree of agreement between the different estimates presented here as well as with studies from other industrialised
Discussion
We present here a detailed review of the epidemiology of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia in England and Wales and the first analysis of the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination against these conditions.
The collation and analysis of national, population-based data on physician consultations and hospitalisations, as well as the analysis of historical data-sets allowed us to quantify the epidemiology of herpes zoster and PHN. This detailed epidemiological data, combined with
Acknowledgements
The United Kingdom Medical Research Council, Grant number G9818303, provided financial support. We thank Dr Elizabeth Miller for comments on the manuscript and Usha Gungabissoon for obtaining the mortality data.
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