Elsevier

Vaccine

Volume 19, Issues 23–24, 30 April 2001, Pages 3076-3090
Vaccine

The epidemiology of herpes zoster and potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination in England and Wales

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-410X(01)00044-5Get rights and content

Abstract

The epidemiology of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) was quantified from a variety of data sources and the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination assessed. The annual incidence and severity of zoster increases sharply with age, as measured by physician consultation and hospitalisation rates, average length of stay, average proportion of cases developing PHN and the age-specific case-fatality ratio. Combining these data with information on health related quality of life results in an estimated loss of 20 000 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) annually in England and Wales from herpes zoster (17 400 due to PHN). The current cost of treating herpes zoster associated disease is estimated to be £47.6m annually. Since both the health and economic burden are high, vaccination of the elderly is expected to be cost-effective under most scenarios, the attractiveness of immunisation increasing with age due to the increased burden of disease in the very elderly.

Introduction

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is associated with two distinct diseases: varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles). Primary infection with VZV results in varicella, a usually mild infection of children. Following primary infection the virus becomes dormant in dorsal root ganglia, and may reactivate later to cause herpes zoster, a cutaneous eruption commonly associated with pain. Reactivation is thought to follow a decline in cell-mediated immunity, usually occurring in immunocompromised individuals or the elderly. Complications of zoster occur in 13–26% of cases [1], [2], [3], the most common and debilitating being post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) — persistent pain occurring after the onset of zoster. Around 25% of individuals would be expected to develop herpes zoster at some point in their lives [4], and between 15 and 40% of these will develop PHN [5], [6]. Hence, zoster and PHN are the cause of significant morbidity. Since the probability of developing zoster and PHN both increase significantly with age [5], [6], the overwhelming burden associated with these diseases is borne by the elderly.

A live attenuated VZV vaccine (Oka strain) has been available since the mid 1970s [7], and has been introduced into a number of country's infant immunisation schedules, including that of the United States, with the primary aim of preventing varicella [8]. There is increasing interest as to whether a similar vaccine (either live-attenuated or inactivated) might prevent the development of zoster through boosting cell-mediated immunity to VZV [9], [10], [11], [12]. Follow-up of vaccinated immuno-compromised children suggests that those who had a household exposure to wild varicella were significantly less likely to develop zoster than those who did not [13], suggesting that exposure to the vaccine might provide a similar boost. Safety and immunogenicity studies have shown that adults with a prior history of varicella can be safely immunised with either a live or attenuated varicella vaccine, resulting in a boost to their cell-mediated response [9], [10], [11], [12]. The efficacy of the live vaccine in preventing zoster in the elderly is currently being evaluated in clinical trials.

To enable the impact of mass vaccination to be assessed (whether this be vaccination of children against varicella, or vaccination of adults against herpes zoster) it is necessary to have good, population-based pre-vaccination epidemiological data. Many of the population-based studies of shingles were performed decades ago [2], [5], [6], [14] and the epidemiology of herpes zoster might be expected to have changed over time, particularly in the light of new treatment regimes and an aging population. Hence it is timely to assess the occurrence and characteristics of herpes zoster in the community.

The aims of this paper are to quantify the epidemiology of zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia in a typical industrialised country (England and Wales), to determine if mass adult vaccination against zoster is likely to be cost-effective, and if so, which age group should be targeted for immunisation.

Section snippets

Epidemiological data sources and parameter estimates

The age-specific incidence of zoster in the community was taken from a prospective study of zoster in general practice over the period 1947–1972 [5] and from two sentinel surveillance systems: the fourth morbidity survey in general practice (MSGP4), a survey of general practices covering a 1% sample of England and Wales during 1991–1992 [15]; and the Royal College of general practitioners weekly returns service (RCGP) [16] which also comprises of a representative sample of GP practices in

Epidemiology of zoster

The annual incidence of first episode of herpes zoster in England and Wales by age group as calculated from the different data sets is shown in Fig. 1. It is clear that the incidence of first episode of zoster increases with age from 10 to 20 per 10 000 person years in children to greater than 100 per 10 000 person years in those aged 85 years or greater. There is a high degree of agreement between the different estimates presented here as well as with studies from other industrialised

Discussion

We present here a detailed review of the epidemiology of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia in England and Wales and the first analysis of the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination against these conditions.

The collation and analysis of national, population-based data on physician consultations and hospitalisations, as well as the analysis of historical data-sets allowed us to quantify the epidemiology of herpes zoster and PHN. This detailed epidemiological data, combined with

Acknowledgements

The United Kingdom Medical Research Council, Grant number G9818303, provided financial support. We thank Dr Elizabeth Miller for comments on the manuscript and Usha Gungabissoon for obtaining the mortality data.

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