Usefulness of the TIMI risk score in predicting both short- and long-term outcomes in the Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Myocardial Infarction Strategies In-Hospital (VANQWISH) Trial

Am J Cardiol. 2002 Nov 1;90(9):922-6. doi: 10.1016/s0002-9149(02)02654-1.

Abstract

We sought to test the validity and clinical utility of the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for patients who have non-Q-wave myocardial infarction. A post hoc analysis of the Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies In-Hospital (VANQWISH) Trial was performed, wherein patients were assigned a TIMI risk score from which both 30-day and 12-month outcomes (death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or urgent revascularization) were assessed. At 30 days, the TIMI risk score showed a close match between observed and predicted probabilities of events after adjustment for overall event rates. The event rate at 30 days was 6% for a score of 0 to 2, 10% for a score of 3, 13% for a score of 4, and 14% for a score of 5 to 7 (p = 0.003 and c statistic 0.59). Discriminative ability of the score was greater in the conservative group at 30 days (p = 0.0004, c statistic 0.67). The score remained modestly predictive of events at 1 year (c statistic 0.60). Conservative strategy patients had better 30-day outcomes than the invasive strategy patients if their score was 0 to 2 (odds ratio 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.08 to 0.76). No significant difference in outcomes between strategies was detected for a score > or =3. The TIMI risk score provides moderate incremental prognostic information in high-risk patients, during both short- and long-term follow-up.

Publication types

  • Clinical Trial
  • Comparative Study
  • Evaluation Study
  • Randomized Controlled Trial

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Cardiac Catheterization
  • Coronary Artery Disease / blood
  • Coronary Artery Disease / epidemiology
  • Coronary Artery Disease / physiopathology
  • Creatine Kinase / blood
  • Creatine Kinase, MB Form
  • Disease Progression
  • Endpoint Determination
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Hospitals, Veterans*
  • Humans
  • Isoenzymes / blood
  • Myocardial Infarction / blood
  • Myocardial Infarction / epidemiology*
  • Myocardial Infarction / physiopathology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prevalence
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Factors
  • Stroke Volume / physiology
  • Survival Analysis
  • Time
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome

Substances

  • Isoenzymes
  • Creatine Kinase
  • Creatine Kinase, MB Form